Sugarcane, fires, and respiratory health in São Paulo, Brazil: A case study on the social implications of agro-energy production
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1 Sugarcane, fires, and respiratory health in São Paulo, Brazil: A case study on the social implications of agro-energy production María Uriarte Ecology, Evolution & Environmental Biology Columbia University
2 Figure 2: Global Trends over Time in Yield, Cultivated Area, and Prices for Ten Major Crops USD Hectograms (inf. adj.) per Hectare Year Yield Cultivated Area Prices Hectares (thousands) Rudel et al. In review
3 Figure 3: The Geographic Distribution of Land Sparing Nations Rudel et al. In review
4 VARIABLE COEFFICIENT Intercept.151 (.025) *** Annual urban growth rate (.036) ** Total annual growth rate ( ) (.035) # % of agric. produc exported ( ).111 (.027) *** R 2.40 Adjusted R 2.35*** ***p<.001, **p<.01,*p<.05, #p<.10 DeFries et al. In review
5
6 Raw sugarpaste ($/ton). $/barrel Yom Kippur war Oil Embargo Iran-Iraq war $50 $45 $ $ Gulf war $30 $ /11 $20 $15 $ Sugarcane $5 Oil 0 $
7
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9 Social and environmental effects of sugarcane production in São Paulo 1. Air pollution and respiratory morbidity (Arbex et al. 2000, Lara et al. 2005, Martinelli et al. 2002, Cançado et al. 2006, Almeida 2006). 2. Degradation of aquatic ecosystems (Martinelli et al. 2002). 3. Exploitation of cane-cutters (Rodrigues 2006, Alves 2006). 4. Increased vulnerability to weather and market fluctuations?
10 Sugarcane, fires & respiratory health 1. What are the spatial links between sugarcane cultivation, occurrence of fires, and respiratory health at the state scale? 2. How can we ameliorate the effects of recent expansion in cane cultivation on respiratory health?
11 Sugarcane production by state (2005) Others Pernambuco Sao Paulo Alagoas Minas Parana
12 Area in sugarcane São Paulo
13 Planted Area (ha) Planted area (ha) 400, , , , ,000 Cotton Rice Beans Wheat Expansion of sugarcane in the state of Sao Paulo 150, , ,000, Sugarcane 50,000 5,000,000 Corn Soy 4,000,000 Total 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0
14 Percent (sugarcane) Percent (others) Value of sugarcane production in SP Sugarcane Corn Soy
15 Standardized monthly salaries (R$2001) MONTHLY WORKER TRACTOR DRIVER MIGRANT WORKER CREW LEADER JOURNEYMAN ADMINISTRATOR
16 R 2 = 0.42 Data: INPE (NOAA-12)
17 Legal objectives to eliminate pre-harvest burning in Sao Paulo
18 April December
19 Fires/month ( ) 6000 Sugarcane burning season JAN FEB MAR APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC Data: INPE, NOAA-12
20 Where there s fire. Smoke PM 2.5 TSP SO SO 2 2 Data: CETESB, Brasil
21 Respiratory disease counts Sugarcane burning season JAN FEB MAR APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC Data: DATASUS, Brasilia
22 Mean Temperature (deg C) Total precipitation (mm) MaxTemp MinTemp Precip J F M A M J J A S O N D -100 Data: CIIAGRO, SP, Brasil
23
24 Statistical Model: Respiratory disease w ij ~ Binomial(s ij ) p w s i M 1 12 p i 1 Binomial w ij s ij logit s ij X ij Fires/ PPT ha X ij MaxTemp % Rural Sugarcanein1995 Muni( Random)
25 (A)CHILDREN (<10 YEARS OF AGE) Parameter Estimate Std. Err. z value Pr(> z ) Intercept < 2e-16 Fires/km e-14 Max. Temp Precipitation (PPT) Per. Rural e-09 PPT x Max Temp < 2e-16 Max. Temp x PPT x Fires/km e-09 Sugarcane in 1995 (km 2 ) (B) ELDERLY (>60 YEARS OF AGE Parameter Estimate Std. Err. z value Pr(> z ) Intercept < 2e-16 Fires/km e-08 Max. Temp Precipitation e-11 Per. Rural e-07 PPT x Max Temp < 2e-16 Max. Temp x PPT x Fires/km
26 ELDERLY PREDICTED /YR CASES/1,000 INDIVIDUALS ELDERLY OBSERVED CHILDREN PREDICTED CHILDREN OBSERVED
27 Cases per 1,000 individuals/yr associated with sugarcane burning ELDERLY CURRENT FIRE CHILDREN CURRENT FIRE CHILDREN CHRONIC FIRE
28 Current: 12% Current & chronic: 38% (State 5.4%) Current: 16% (State 1.8%)
29 Statistical Model: Lung cancer deaths and hospital admissions w ij ~ Binomial(s ij ) p w s i M 1 12 p i 1 Binomial w ij s ij logit s ij X ij % sugarcanein1993 X ij % Urban Muni( Random)
30 Respiratory cancer deaths and admissions ( ) NUMBER OF DEATHS > 40 YRS OLD/10,000 IND./YR Parameter Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(> z ) Intercept < 2e-16 *** % sugar *** % urban *** NUMBER OF ADMISSIONS > 40 YRS OLD/10,000 IND./YR Parameter Estimate Std. Error z value Pr(> z ) Intercept < 2e-16 *** % sugar *** % urban e-09 ***
31 % land surface in sugarcane (1993) % population urban (2000) Number of deaths per 10,0000/yr from respiratory cancer ( )
32 Number of deaths > 40 yrs old/yr from respiratory cancer per 10,0000 indiv associated with sugarcane burning ( ) Number of deaths > 40 yrs old/yr from respiratory cancer per 10,0000 indiv associated with urban centers ( ) 35 deaths/yr 153 admissions/yr 448 deaths/yr 2389 admissions/yr
33 Socio-environmental effects of sugarcane production 1. What are the spatial links between sugarcane cultivation, occurrence of fires, and respiratory health? 2. How can we ameliorate the effects of sugarcane cultivation on respiratory health? Identify most vulnerable areas Identity non-suitable areas
34 INCREASE IN SUGAR (KM 2 ) PREDICTED % INCREASE IN FIRES/KM 2 PRED. % INCREASE IN ELDERLY ATTRIB. TO FIRE PRED. % INCREASE YOUNG CASES ATTRIB. FIRE
35 Effect of increase in sugarcane from more fires more elderly cases more children cases
36 Identify areas non-suitable for cultivation Identify areas that are not mechanizable (fields are >12% slope or < 150 ha). Exclude areas within meter buffer of rivers & streams.
37 Hectares of sugarcane to abandon ,800 1, ,500 3, ,000 7, ,500 Kilometers
38 Summary Link between sugarcane, fire, and respiratory health of children & elderly. Identified municipalities that have the highest incidence of cases attributable to fire. Identified areas that are not suitable for sugarcane cultivation. Overlap & tradeoffs
39 Other considerations Effects on biodiversity. Mechanization may reduce the number of fires but at the expense of jobs. Effects of sugarcane processing on water resources. Effects of increased demand for sugar.
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