Monthly Indicators - 5.7% - 6.3% - 2.6% Activity Overview New Listings Pending Sales. Closed Sales. Days on Market Until Sale. Median Sales Price

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Toby Watts
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1 Monthly Indicators 2019 Despite a strong U.S. economy, historically low unemployment and steady wage growth, home sales began to slow across the nation late last year. Blame was given to a combination of high prices and a steady stream of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. This month, the Fed responded to the growing affordability conundrum. In a move described as a patient approach to further rate changes, the Fed did not increase rates during New Listings increased 6.8 percent to 805. Pending Sales were up 0.9 percent to 575. Inventory levels shrank 6.3 percent to 1,612 units. Activity Snapshot - 5.7% - 6.3% - 2.6% One-Year Change in Closed Sales One-Year Change in Inventory One-Year Change in Median Sales Price Residential real estate activity in the counties of Lehigh and Northampton composed of single-family properties, townhomes and condominiums combined. Percent changes are calculated using rounded figures. Prices were a tad soft. The Median Sales Price decreased 2.6 percent to $185,000. Days on Market remained flat at 47 days. Sellers were encouraged as Months Supply of Inventory was down 4.2 percent to 2.3 months. While the home affordability topic will continue to set the tone for the 2019 housing market, early signs point to an improving inventory situation, including in several markets that are beginning to show regular year-over-year percentage increases. As motivated sellers attempt to get a jump on annual goals, many new listings enter the market immediately after the turn of a calendar year. If home price appreciation falls more in line with wage growth, and rates can hold firm, consumer confidence and affordability are likely to improve. Activity Overview New Listings Pending Sales Closed Sales Days on Market Until Sale Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Percent of List Price Received Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes Available Months Supply of Inventory Activity by School District Lender-Mediated Activity Carbon County Activity Overview Current as of February 10, Data 2019 Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors MLS. Report 2019 ShowingTime.

2 Activity Overview Key metrics by report month and for year-to-date (YTD) starting from the first of the year. Key Metrics Historical Sparkbars Percent Change from Previous Year YTD 2018 YTD 2019 Percent Change from Previous Year New Listings % % Pending Sales % % Closed Sales % % Days on Market % % Median Sales Price $189,900 $185, % $189,900 $185, % Average Sales Price $227,601 $217, % $227,601 $217, % Pct. of List Price Received 97.5% 96.7% - 0.8% 97.5% 96.7% - 0.8% Housing Affordability Index % % Inventory 1,721 1, % Months Supply % Current as of February 10, Data 2019 Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors MLS. Report 2019 ShowingTime. 2

3 New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month % - 0.7% + 6.8% -3.9% - 0.7% % New Listings Prior Year Percent Change February % March , % April ,203 1, % May ,227 1, % June ,230 1, % July ,197 1, % August ,123 1, % September , % October , % November % December % % 12-Month Avg % Historical New Listings by Month 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1, Current as of February 10, Data 2019 Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors MLS. Report 2019 ShowingTime. 3

4 Pending Sales A count of the properties on which offers have been accepted in a given month % + 5.9% + 0.9% + 5.7% + 5.9% % Pending Sales Prior Year Percent Change February % March % April % May % June % July % August % September % October % November % December % % 12-Month Avg % Historical Pending Sales by Month 1, Current as of February 10, Data 2019 Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors MLS. Report 2019 ShowingTime. 4

5 Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that closed in a given month % % - 5.7% -8.5% % % Closed Sales Prior Year Percent Change February % March % April % May % June % July % August % September % October % November % December % % 12-Month Avg % Historical Closed Sales by Month 1,200 1, Current as of February 10, Data 2019 Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors MLS. Report 2019 ShowingTime. 5

6 Days on Market Until Sale Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month. Historical Days on Market Until Sale by Month % % 0.0% % % % Days on Market Prior Year Percent Change February % March % April % May % June % July % August % September % October % November % December % % 12-Month Avg* % * Average Days on Market of all properties from February 2018 through This is not the average of the individual figures above Current as of February 10, Data 2019 Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors MLS. Report 2019 ShowingTime. 6

7 Median Sales Price Point at which half of the sales sold for more and half sold for less, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month. Historical Median Sales Price by Month $220,000 $169,000 $189,900 $185,000 $169,000 $189, % % - 2.6% -0.6% % $185, % Median Sales Price Prior Year Percent Change February 2018 $174,000 $170, % March 2018 $200,000 $170, % April 2018 $190,000 $175, % May 2018 $200,000 $183, % June 2018 $205,000 $199, % July 2018 $210,000 $189, % August 2018 $210,000 $200, % September 2018 $194,950 $189, % October 2018 $197,950 $190, % November 2018 $195,000 $185, % December 2018 $190,000 $183, % 2019 $185,000 $189, % 12-Month Med* $199,000 $185, % * Median Sales Price of all properties from February 2018 through This is not the average of the individual figures above. $210,000 $200,000 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 $160,000 $150, Current as of February 10, Data 2019 Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors MLS. Report 2019 ShowingTime. 7

8 Average Sales Price Average sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month. Historical Average Sales Price by Month $260,000 $194,421 $227,601 $217,676 $194,421 $227, % % - 4.4% + 0.4% % $217, % Avg. Sales Price Prior Year Percent Change February 2018 $210,180 $208, % March 2018 $230,156 $196, % April 2018 $219,600 $204, % May 2018 $223,159 $209, % June 2018 $237,377 $232, % July 2018 $232,650 $222, % August 2018 $237,616 $224, % September 2018 $221,136 $219, % October 2018 $226,383 $215, % November 2018 $221,525 $217, % December 2018 $222,485 $219, % 2019 $217,676 $227, % 12-Month Avg* $226,512 $217, % * Avg. Sales Price of all properties from February 2018 through This is not the average of the individual figures above. $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160, Current as of February 10, Data 2019 Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors MLS. Report 2019 ShowingTime. 8

9 Percent of List Price Received Percentage found when dividing a property s sales price by its most recent list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions. Historical Percent of List Price Received by Month 100.0% 96.4% 97.5% 96.7% 96.4% 97.5% 96.7% -0.1% + 1.1% - 0.8% -0.1% + 1.1% -0.8% Pct. of List Price Received Prior Year Percent Change February % 97.3% +0.4% March % 97.8% +0.5% April % 97.8% +0.2% May % 97.7% +1.1% June % 98.2% +0.4% July % 98.3% +0.3% August % 97.7% +0.3% September % 97.6% +0.6% October % 97.8% +0.3% November % 98.1% -0.6% December % 97.5% -0.1% % 97.5% -0.8% 12-Month Avg* 98.1% 97.8% +0.3% * Average Pct. of List Price Received for all properties from February 2018 through This is not the average of the individual figures above. 99.0% 98.0% 97.0% 96.0% 95.0% 94.0% 93.0% Current as of February 10, Data 2019 Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors MLS. Report 2019 ShowingTime. 9

10 Housing Affordability Index This index measures housing affordability for the region. For example, an index of 120 means the median household income is 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability % - 9.7% + 1.2% -3.6% - 9.7% % Affordability Index Prior Year Percent Change February % March % April % May % June % July % August % September % October % November % December % % 12-Month Avg % Historical Housing Affordability Index by Month Current as of February 10, Data 2019 Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors MLS. Report 2019 ShowingTime. 10

11 Inventory of Homes Available The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month. 2,182 1,721 1,612 Historical Inventory of Homes Available by Month 6, % % -6.3% Inventory Prior Year Percent Change February ,656 2, % March ,635 2, % April ,761 2, % May ,895 2, % June ,040 2, % July ,119 2, % August ,215 2, % September ,302 2, % October ,258 2, % November ,050 2, % December ,651 1, % ,612 1, % 12-Month Avg* 1,933 2, % * Inventory for all properties from February 2018 through This is not the average of the individual figures above. 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Current as of February 10, Data 2019 Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors MLS. Report 2019 ShowingTime. 11

12 Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months Historical Months Supply of Inventory by Month % % -4.2% Months Supply Prior Year Percent Change February % March % April % May % June % July % August % September % October % November % December % % 12-Month Avg* % * Months Supply for all properties from February 2018 through This is not the average of the individual figures above Current as of February 10, Data 2019 Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors MLS. Report 2019 ShowingTime. 12

13 Activity by School District New Listings, Closed Sales, and Average Sales Price are based on year-to-date (YTD) figures. Homes for Sale is based on monthly figures. Lehigh and Northampton County School Districts New Listings Pending Sales Closed Sales Avg. Sales Price Inventory YTD 2018 YTD / YTD 2018 YTD / YTD 2018 YTD / YTD 2018 YTD / / % % % $227,601 $217, % 1,721 1, % Allentown % % % $118,218 $145, % % Catasauqua % % % $162,308 $131, % % East Penn % % % $283,701 $239, % % Northern Lehigh % % % $142,218 $169, % % Northwestern Lehigh % % % $334,100 $460, % % Parkland % % % $245,712 $289, % % Salisbury % % % $223,000 $371, % % Southern Lehigh % % % $594,521 $399, % % Whitehall % % % $187,138 $159, % % Bangor Area % % % $178,428 $113, % % Bethlehem % % % $227,906 $218, % % Easton % % % $200,732 $208, % % Nazareth % % % $361,922 $304, % % Northampton % % % $185,155 $227, % % Pen Argyl % % % $161,404 $132, % % Saucon Valley % % % $355,491 $300, % % Wilson % % % $209,179 $162, % % Carbon County* % % % $134,800 $132, % % Jim Thorpe % % % $156,444 $155, % % Lehighton % % % $148,305 $151, % % Palmerton % % % $132,448 $119, % % Panther Valley % % % $86,900 $65, % % Weatherly % % $60,000 $75, % % * Carbon County data includes listings in the Hazelton Area School District, which is not a school district in GLVR's footprint. Current as of February 10, Data 2019 Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors MLS. Report 2019 ShowingTime. 13

14 Lender-Mediated Activity Metrics are based on year-to-date (YTD) figures. Lender-mediated properties are those marked as "Foreclosed," "REO," "Bank Owned," "Pre-Foreclosure" or "Short Sale." Residential activity only. The YTD data point represents all traditional and lender-mediated activity. Share is the market share of lender-mediated activity for each area. Lehigh and Northampton County School Districts Inventory Closed Sales Median Sales Price (YTD) Avg. Sales Price (YTD) Lender-Mediated Share YTD 2019 Lender-Mediated Share Traditional + / Lender-Mediated + / Traditional + / Lender-Mediated + / 1, % % $185, % $96, % $185, % $159, % Allentown % % $139, % $ % $145, % $ % Catasauqua % % $140, % $0 -- $131, % $0 -- East Penn % % $243, % $0 -- $239, % $0 -- Northern Lehigh % % $182, % $0 -- $169, % $0 -- Northwestern Lehigh % % $447, % $0 -- $460, % $0 -- Parkland % % $296, % $409, % $286, % $409, % Salisbury % % $220, % $0 -- $371, % $0 -- Southern Lehigh % % $375, % $0 -- $399, % $0 -- Whitehall % % $167, % $0 -- $159, % $0 -- Bangor Area % % $115, % $0 -- $113, % $0 -- Bethlehem % % $190, % $95, $222, % $97, Easton % % $175, % $ % $208, % $ % Nazareth % % $301, % $0 -- $304, % $0 -- Northampton % % $212, % $ % $227, % $ % Pen Argyl % % $125, % $ % $132, % $ % Saucon Valley % % $190, % $96, $312, % $96, Wilson % % $125, % $0 -- $162, % $0 -- Carbon County* % % $123, % $0 -- $132, % $0 -- Jim Thorpe % % $141, % $0 -- $155, % $0 -- Lehighton % % $149, % $0 -- $151, % $0 -- Palmerton % % $111, % $0 -- $119, % $0 -- Panther Valley % % $64, % $0 -- $65, % $0 -- Weatherly % % $75, % $0 -- $75, % $0 -- * Carbon County data includes listings in the Hazelton Area School District, which is not a school district in GLVR's footprint. Current as of February 10, Data 2019 Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors MLS. Report 2019 ShowingTime. 14

15 Carbon County Activity Overview Key metrics by report month and for year-to-date (YTD) starting from the first of the year. Key Metrics Historical Sparkbars Percent Change from Previous Year YTD 2018 YTD 2019 Percent Change from Previous Year New Listings % % Pending Sales % % Closed Sales % % Days on Market % % Median Sales Price $138,000 $123, % $138,000 $123, % Average Sales Price $134,800 $132, % $134,800 $132, % Pct. of List Price Received 96.1% 94.2% - 2.0% 96.1% 94.2% - 2.0% Housing Affordability Index % % Inventory % Months Supply % Current as of February 10, Data 2019 Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors MLS. Report 2019 ShowingTime. 15

Monthly Indicators. Quick Facts 0.0% January % + 3.2%

Monthly Indicators. Quick Facts 0.0% January % + 3.2% Monthly Indicators 2019 Despite a strong U.S. economy, historically low unemployment and steady wage growth, home sales began to slow across the nation late last year. Blame was given to a combination