INDUSTRY OVERVIEW F I N A N C I A L C O M M U N I T Y P R E S E N T A T I O N M A Y 2 2,
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1 INDUSTRY OVERVIEW BOB WELLS SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, CORPORATE COMMUNICATIONS & PUBLIC AFFAIRS
2 Forward-Looking Statement The presentations today will contain certain forward-looking statements," within the meaning of the federal securities laws, with respect to anticipated future performance (including sales and earnings), expected growth, future business plans and other matters. These statements may be identified by the use of words and phrases such as "believe," "expect," "may," "will," "should," "project," "could," "plan," "goal," "potential," "seek," "intend" or "anticipate" or the negative thereof or comparable terminology. These statements are based upon management's current expectations, estimates, assumptions and beliefs concerning future events and conditions. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are necessarily subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are outside our control that could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements and from our historical results and experience. These risks, uncertainties and other factors include such things as: general business conditions, strengths of retail and manufacturing economies and the growth in the coatings industry; changes in raw material and energy supplies and pricing; changes in our relationships with customers and suppliers; our ability to successfully integrate past and future acquisitions into our existing operations, including Valspar, as well as the performance of the businesses acquired; risks inherent in the achievement of anticipated cost synergies resulting from the acquisition of Valspar and the timing thereof; competitive factors, including pricing pressures and product innovation and quality; the nature, cost, quantity and outcome of pending and future litigation and other claims, including the lead pigment and lead-based paint litigation, and the effect of any legislation and administrative regulations relating thereto; adverse weather conditions and natural disasters; and other risks, uncertainties and factors described from time to time in our reports filed with the SEC. Since it is not possible to predict or identify all of the risks, uncertainties and other factors that may affect future results, the above list should not be considered a complete list. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made, and we undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
3 Paint & Coatings Industry Global Mix by Category (Based on $) Special Purpose Coatings 20% OEM Coatings 41% Architectural Paints 39% Total Coatings 2017 ~9.4 Billion Gallons ~125 Billion Dollars 2 Source: KNG Global Research The use of KNG information in this presentation is for illustrative and consistency purposes only; SHW cannot verify the accuracy of KNG Research.
4 Global Paint & Coatings Industry Mix by Category (Based on $) ARCHITECTURAL 6% 2% 39% GENERAL INDUSTRIAL AUTO OEM 12% WOOD COIL 2% PACKAGING 4% PROTECTIVE & MARINE 7% AUTO REFINISH 11% 17% OTHER 3 Source: KNG Global Research The use of KNG information in this presentation is for illustrative and consistency purposes only; SHW cannot verify the accuracy of KNG Research.
5 Paint & Coatings Demand by Region Geographic Split of Global Revenue North America 23% 24% 21% 25% South America 5% 7% 3% 3% Europe 23% 23% 23% 25% ROW ~ 4% Asia-Pacific 45% 39% 51% 42% 4 All Coatings Architectural Paints OEM Coatings Special Purpose Coatings Source: KNG Global Research The use of KNG information in this presentation is for illustrative and consistency purposes only; SHW cannot verify the accuracy of KNG Research.
6 Top Global Manufacturers Coatings Industry 2017 All Others (>5,000 firms) Global Market Top 10 Suppliers ~55% Masco 5 Source: KNG Global Research The use of KNG information in this presentation is for illustrative and consistency purposes only; SHW cannot verify the accuracy of KNG Research.
7 North America Paint & Coatings Industry Sales ($) Mix by Category Special Purpose 22% OEM Coatings 37% Architectural Paints 41% North America Paint & Coatings 2017 ~1.5 Billion Gallons ~28.0 Billion Dollars 6 Source: KNG Global Research The use of KNG information in this presentation is for illustrative and consistency purposes only; SHW cannot verify the accuracy of KNG Research.
8 U.S. Paint & Coatings Industry Architectural Paint Gallons (Millions) Millions of Gallons ~802 Million (+2.8% YoY) Sources: ACA, Department of Commerce, Company Estimates
9 U.S. Architectural Paints Estimated Breakdown by Segment New Non- Residential 6% (51M Gal) Residential Repaint (Pro) 29% (230M Gal) Non-Residential Repaint 15% (123M Gal) New Residential 12% (93M Gal) DIY 38% (305M Gal) 802 Million Gallons 8 Sources: ACA (Total Gallons), Company Estimates (Segment Breakdown)
10 Five Reasons for Solid Growth Prospects NEW CONSTRUCTION REPAINT & REMODELING PROTECTIVE & MARINE GLOBAL MANUFACTURING AUTO REFINISH Sherwin-Williams is well positioned in all areas 9
11 NEW CONSTRUCTION RESIDENTIAL NON-RESIDENTIAL 10
12 U.S. Residential Activity Factors Supporting a Continued Growth Cycle Annual household formation ~1.4 million for the next 6-8 years Housing supply is not keeping pace especially at entry level New housing activity lags prior periods Home values rising rapidly due to tight supply Baby Boomers averaged ~1.6M households from Existing entry level supply is under 3 mo. (compared to 6.5 mo. historical average) 2017 single family completions 21% below historical average 5-yr avg. home values up 8% compared to 10-yr average of +1.3% Strong household formation over foreseeable future but building like a recession 11 Refer to Industry Appendix for support data
13 U.S. New Non-Residential Current Activity is Positive Architectural Billings Multi-Family starts soften in 2019 as completions catch-up Commercial Building Starts Institutional Building Starts March 2018 was 6th straight month of expansion Completions expected to rise ~15% YoY in 2018 Square feet (in millions) estimated +2% YoY in 2018 Square feet (in millions) estimated +3% YoY in 2018 Softer start to 2018 season Positive customer commentary on the full year 12 Refer to Industry Appendix for support data
14 Latin America New Residential & Non-Residential Early Stages of Recovery Residential Construction Spend Non-Residential Construction Spend CAGR Total: -0.92% CAGR Total: +2.64% CAGR Total: -0.65% CAGR Total: +4.27% Mexico: -1.35% Brazil: -4.08% Mexico: +1.55% Brazil: +2.99% Mexico: +0.41% Brazil: -2.83% Mexico: +2.2% Brazil: +5.3% Recovery is forecasted for Mexico and Brazil most impactful for Sherwin-Williams 13 Refer to Industry Appendix for support data
15 REPAINT & REMODEL Painting Contractors Remodelers DIY 14
16 U.S. Repaint and Remodel Factors Supporting a Continued Growth Cycle Strong remodeling activity forecast Baby boomers aging in place and rising home values Residential fixed investment Non-Residential fixed investment +7% YoY growth for 2018 & total spending ~$337 billion Less than 8% of households over 55 move annually 3.9% of GDP in 1Q18 down 13% from historical average 12.8% of GDP in 1Q18 down 4% from historical average Sherwin-Williams has had double digit growth in residential repaint category in 16 of last 18 quarters 15 Refer to Industry Appendix for support data
17 Repaint & Remodel Well Positioned to Serve All Segments PAINT BIG BOX SPECIALTY PAINT STORE MULTICATEGORY RETAIL STORES PRO PAINT CONTRACTOR PROJECT TYPE(S) DIY REMODELER PROJECT TYPE(S) 16
18 Repaint and Remodel DIY Contractor Shift Will Continue in U.S. & Canada 59% 38% DIY/ Remodeler Paint Contractor 41% 62% Sherwin-Williams is well positioned to serve both segments 17 Sources: U.S. Commerce Department, Company Estimates
19 PROTECTIVE & MARINE 18
20 Protective & Marine Upside Opportunities in the U.S. Continue to Improve Rig counts are following steady recovery of oil prices Poor condition of US highways & bridges Government infrastructure investment below trend since 2010 Average rig count 2017 YoY +71.6% 2018 YTD +30.6% $420B repair backlog $836B capital needs backlog Under-funded ~$950B over last 7 years 19 Refer to Industry Appendix for support data
21 GLOBAL MANUFACTURING 20
22 2015-Dec 2016-Jan 2016-Feb 2016-Mar 2016-Apr 2016-May 2016-Jun 2016-Jul 2016-Aug 2016-Sep 2016-Oct 2016-Nov 2016-Dec 2017-Jan 2017-Feb 2017-Mar 2017-Apr 2017-May 2017-Jun 2017-Jul 2017-Aug 2017-Sep 2017-Oct 2017-Nov 2017-Dec 2018-Jan 2018-Feb 2018-Mar 2018-Apr Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar Global Confidence Positive Outlook Global Manufacturing Confidence PMI WORLD NORTH AMERICA EMEA ASIA LATIN AMERICA Global Consumer Confidence Consumer Outlook Sources: IHS-Markit, OECD
23 Global Manufacturing Factors Supporting a Continued Growth Cycle General Industrial Industrial Wood Packaging Coil & Extrusion Macroeconomic trends support global growth in heavy construction & agricultural machinery Primarily driven by US remodeling activity and construction starts Conversion to Non-BPA technology and growing consumption in emerging markets 2018 expected to be another record year for high-rise construction completions 22 Refer to Industry Appendix for support data
24 AUTO REFINISH VEHICLES IN USE MILES DRIVEN COLLISION REPAIR 23
25 Automotive Refinish Factors Supporting a Continued Growth Cycle Vehicle Miles Driven & Vehicles In Use (US) Collision repair industry consolidation drives partnership opportunities Continued shift to waterborne products Positive trend since 2015, potential slow down as oil/gas rises MSO s expected to account for ~50% of revenues by 2020 Global regulatory environment driving technology change 24 Refer to Industry Appendix for support data
26 INDUSTRY APPENDIX
27 U.S. Residential Activity Sustained Household Formation Underpins Housing Demand Number of Occupied Households 1st Qtr 3rd Qtr 1st Qtr 3rd Qtr 1st Qtr 3rd Qtr 1st Qtr 3rd Qtr 1st Qtr 3rd Qtr 1st Qtr 3rd Qtr 1st Qtr 3rd Qtr 1st Qtr 3rd Qtr 1st Qtr 3rd Qtr 1st Qtr 3rd Qtr 1st Qtr 3rd Qtr 1st Qtr 3rd Qtr 1st Qtr 3rd Qtr 1st Qtr 3rd Qtr 1st Qtr 3rd Qtr 1st Qtr 3rd Qtr 1st Qtr 3rd Qtr 1st Qtr 3rd Qtr 1st Qtr Quarterly Y-o-Y Growth 120, ,000 5,000 4, ,000 4, , , , , , , , ,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Occupied Households Quarterly Y-o-Y Growth 2 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
28 U.S. Residential Supply & Demand Shortfall Particularly Acute in Entry Level Months' Supply of Resale Inventory % Price Appreciation - right 12% 10% Historical Average 7% 8% % % 4% 2.0 2% Entry Level First-Time Move Up Second-Time Move Up Luxury Low Tier Mid Tier High Tier 0% 3 Sources: Zelman & Associates, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Local MLS
29 U.S. Residential Limited Supply Inventory For Sale (New & Existing) Below Multi-Decade Norms 1Q90 3Q90 1Q91 3Q91 1Q92 3Q92 1Q93 3Q93 1Q94 3Q94 1Q95 3Q95 1Q96 3Q96 1Q97 3Q97 1Q98 3Q98 1Q99 3Q99 1Q00 3Q00 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 1Q17 3Q17 3.5% Seasonally-Adjusted Single-Family New and Existing Home Inventory as Percentage of Households 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 4 Sources: Zelman & Associates, Census Bureau, NAR
30 U.S. New Residential Housing Supply Not Keeping Pace Annual Surplus/Deficit (Thousands) Cumulative Surplus/Deficit (Thousands) Housing Surplus/Deficit (thousand) & Homeowner Vacancy Rate Housing Surplus/ Deficit (LHS) Vacancy Rate (RHS) Cumulative Housing Surplus/Deficit (RHS) Housing Surplus/Deficit (thousand) , , ,000 1, (200) 0.01 (200) (1,000) (400) (600) (400) (600) (2,000) (3,000) (800) 0 (800) (4,000) 5 Sources: Wells Fargo Securities, U.S. Commerce Department
31 U.S. New Residential New Housing Activity Lags Prior Periods E 2019E 2020E Sources: Zelman & Associates, Census Bureau
32 U.S. New Non-Residential Positive Manufacturing & Construction Outlook 65.0 Architectural Billings by Sector Commercial/ Industrial Billings Institutional Billings Residential Billings 7 Sources: American Institute of Architects
33 U.S. New Non-Residential Positive Growth to Continue in Non-Res Spending Non Residential Construction Spending- $Millions Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Architectural Billings Index U.S. Architectural Billings Index and Non-Residential Construction Spending $740, $730,000 $720, $710,000 $700,000 $690,000 $680,000 $670,000 $660,000 $650, $640, U.S. Non-Residential Construction ABI- Design Contracts ABI- Inquiries ABI- Billings 8 Sources: American Institute of Architects, St Louis Fed
34 U.S. Non-Residential Moderating Permits and Starts Completions Likely to Continue Rising E 2019E E 2019E E 2019E 700 Multi-Family Construction - Units in Thousands Starts Completions Year-End Under Construction 9 Sources: Zelman & Associates, Census Bureau
35 YOY change - In millions of square feet U.S. New Non-Residential Positive Starts Support Completions thru 2018 and into 2019 YOY change - In millions of square feet Commercial Building Starts Commercial includes Retail. Warehouse, Office, Parking Garage. Institutional Building Starts Institutional includes Education, Dormitory, Healthcare, Govt Building, Religious building, recreation building, transportation building 12% 12% 10% 10% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 0% E 0% E 10 Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
36 Latin America New Residential & Non-Residential Construction Spend by Country Non-Residential US$ Billions ARGENTINA BRAZIL CHILE COLUMBIA ECUADOR MEXICO PERU URUGUAY 250 Residential US$ Billions Sources: IHS Global Construction Outlook (Jan. 2018)
37 Repaint & Remodel U.S. Residential Remodeling Remains Strong $425.0 $405.0 $385.0 $365.0 $345.0 $325.0 $305.0 $285.0 $265.0 $245.0 $ % 6.0% 5.9% 5.7% $260.9 $264.4 $267.0 $256.6 Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity 5.5% 5.3% 5.1% 4.8% 5.3% 6.1% 6.6% 6.9% 6.9% 6.4% 6.3% $309.4 $304.8 $296.4 $299.0 $291.5 $285.2 $278.8 $274.7 $278.0 $ % 7.2% 7.3% 7.1% 7.2% $341.0 $337.0 $331.4 $324.9 $314.8 $318.0 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2p Q3p Q4p Q1p % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 4-Quarter Moving Totals (Bils. $) (Revised) 4-Quarter Moving Rate of Change (Revised) 12 Source: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies
38 Repaint & Remodel Change in U.S. Home Values 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% % % %
39 Repaint & Remodel Senior Cohort Show Lowest Mobility; Choosing to Age in Place 60% Average Share of Households That Moved Per Year by Age 55% 53% 50% 45% 40% 35% 34% 30% 25% 23% 20% 17% 15% 10% 5% 13% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% Plus 14 Sources: Zelman & Associates, Census Bureau
40 U.S. Paint & Coatings Industry Residential and Non-Residential Fixed Investment as % of GDP Residential Investment 3.9% of GDP in 1Q18 13% Below Historical Average Non-Residential Investment 12.8% of GDP in 1Q18 4% Below Historical Average 7.00% 15.00% 6.50% 14.50% 6.00% 14.00% 5.50% 13.50% 5.00% 13.00% 4.50% 12.50% 4.00% 12.00% 3.50% 11.50% 3.00% 11.00% 2.50% 10.50% 2.00% 10.00% 15 Sources: Wells Fargo Securities, U.S. Commerce Department
41 Protective & Marine Coatings Forecasted U.S. & Canada Activity 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% Bridge & Highway Food & Bev. Plants Marine Oil & Gas Power Generation Rail Steel Fabricator Water & Wastewater -10.0% -15.0% e 16 Sources: IHS Global Insight, Company Estimates
42 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Number of Rigs Global Economic Indicator: Oil and Gas Global Oil & Gas Rig Count NORTH AMERICA EMEA ASIA-PACIFIC LATIN AMERICA Source: Baker Hughes
43 Oil & Gas Infrastructure Capital Expenditure (in Billions $) % % Shell % % % 38.5 Exxon -19.2% -37.9% % Chevron BP % % % % % % % % Source: Public Company Reports
44 U.S. Infrastructure Spending Under-Funded is Increasingly Urgent Morgan Stanley
45 U.S. Infrastructure Spending Funding is Increasingly Urgent Morgan Stanley
46 U.S. Infrastructure Spending Total Nonbuilding Starts for the United States History Forecast Billions of Current Dollars Total Nonbuilding % Chg -5% -6% 25% -5% 1% -3% 3% -1% Public Works % Chg 13% -4% 4% 2% 12% -2% 6% 1% Street % Chg 14% -3% 13% -6% 5% 5% 7% 2% Bridge % Chg 60% -29% 16% -16% 22% -2% 5% 3% Dam/Flood Control % Chg 33% 0% -6% -1% 0% 6% 7% 4% Sewer % Chg 3% 13% 1% -7% -7% 6% 9% 5% Water Supply % Chg 11% -3% 0% 10% -15% 7% 12% 6% Other Nonbuilding % Chg -10% 8% -8% 31% 35% -15% 3% -6% Power/Utilities % Chg -44% -16% 128% -19% -31% -6% -13% -8% CAGR +1.51% % % % % -6.16% -9.1% 21 Source: Dodge Data & Analytics
47 U.S. Manufacturing Activity Positive Manufacturing Outlook April March Index Change Direction Rate of Change PMI New Orders Production Employment Inventories Order Backlog Exports Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Growing Slower Slower Slower Slower Slower Faster Slower 22 Source: Institute for Supply Management
48 Industrial Coatings Positive Global Activity & 2018 Outlook 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% General Industrial Packaging Industrial Wood Coil Manufacturing -1.0% -2.0% e 23 Source: IHS Global Insight, KNG Global Research
49 Industrial Coatings Metal Packaging Growth Cans Consumed per Person Total Per Capita Can Consumption Growth Through 2021 Global Population by Region NORTH AMERICA EMEA ASIA-PACIFIC LATIN AMERICA Metal Can Consumption per Capita % % +7% 10% % 5% APR EMEA LAR NAR NORTH ASIA-PACIFIC EMEA LATIN AMERICA AMERICA -6% 0% -5% Metal can consumption increasing in developing regions where Population and GDP driving consumers to spend more on packaged food. North American per capita consumption decreasing as Population growth flattens and alternative packaging shifts buying preferences. 24 Sources: OECD, Euromonitor, Company Estimates
50 Number of Completions Industrial Coatings Coil Coatings - High Rise Construction # of 200 meter+ (height) completions # of 300 meter+ (height) completions Completions Timeline CTBUH / The Skyscraper Center
51 Total U.S. Vehicle Miles Driven Automotive Refinish CR/VR Indicators NORTH AMERICA 3,200 U.S. Vehicle Miles Driven Moving 12-Month Total Vehicle Miles Driven (10 Years) 350,000,000 Vehicles In Use Estimated Vehicles In Use EMEA ASIA-PACIFIC LATIN AMERICA 3, ,000,000 3, ,000,000 3, ,000,000 3, ,000,000 3, ,000,000 2,960 50,000,000 2, Sources: AAA, IHS-Markit
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