2007 Northern Virginia Forecast

Transcription

1 2007 Northern Virginia Forecast Presented To: The National Association of Industrial & Office Properties (NAIOP) February 15, 2007 Presented By

2 orthern Virginia Total Inventory 165,409,607 SF Vacancy Rate 8.61% 2006 Net Absorption 2006 Deliveries 4,588,720 SF 5,125,646 SF *All buildings included in the inventory are at least 5,000 square feet

3 orthern Virginia 9,000,000 Square Feet 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, ,000,000-2,000,000-3,000, % 12.0% 8.0% 4.0% 0.0% Vacancy Net Absorption Deliveries Vacancy 10 Year Average Net Absorption: 3,939,743 SF

4 orthern Virginia All Classes All Classes Forecasted Rental Rate Channel $ $ $ $ $32.51 $ $ $ $30.13 $ $ % Growth Rate 7.9% Growth *7.9% growth rate is based on 2-year rental rate growth.

5 CB Richard Ellis Top 10 List of Things to Watch in 2007

6 10. Government Spending Continues to Slow

7 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% Federal Government Consumption 1993-IV 1994-II 1994-IV 1995-II 1995-IV 1996-II 1996-IV 1997-II 1997-IV 1998-II 1998-IV 1999-II 1999-IV 2000-II 2000-IV 2001-II 2001-IV 2002-II 2002-IV 2003-II 2003-IV 2004-II 2004-IV 2005-II 2005-IV 2006-II

8 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% Defense Consumption 1993-IV 1994-II 1994-IV 1995-II 1995-IV 1996-II 1996-IV 1997-II 1997-IV 1998-II 1998-IV 1999-II 1999-IV 2000-II 2000-IV 2001-II 2001-IV 2002-II 2002-IV 2003-II 2003-IV 2004-II 2004-IV 2005-II 2005-IV 2006-II

9 Leases Over 50,000 SF in NoVa: Government and Government Contractors # of Leases Year

10 9. Buildings Are Changing

11 Shopping Centers Today February 2007 Green Builder February 2007 Green Source February 2007

12 Washington DC DC Green Building Act of 2006 All buildings 50,000 SF and greater built after 1/1/2012 must comply with green building standards Arlington County Green Building Incentive Program Updated and expanded in 2003 Offers varying density bonuses to projects that meet specific LEED certifications Federal Government High-Performance Green Building Act 2006 Will establish an Office of Green Building Performance within the General Service Administration (GSA) to develop and implement a consistent green building stand for use by federal agencies

13 Buildings Are Changing Timeline of significant office innovatio 1956 The Bridgers-Paxton Office Building in Albuquerque is the first solar powered office building in the world 1985 Windows 1.0 is released by Microsoft 06 Frank Lloyd Wright s rkin Building is the first fice building designed ecifically for the use of A/C Early 1980 s Keyless entry access cards using RFID technology become commonplace for use in office buildings 2000 and Beyond Wireless Internet, Fingerprint Analysis, Retinal Scanning, Geothermal Heating Systems, Energy Efficient Lighting Systems

14 orldwide Digital Music Sales $ (Millions) 2,500 2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,

15 orldwide Digital Music Sales $ (Millions) 2,500 2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1, What happened here?

16 8. Industrial Space Goes Where the Land Is

17 NoVa Net Absorption, Deliveries, and Vacancy 4,000,000 3,000, % Square Feet 2,000,000 1,000, ,000,000-2,000, % 8.0% 4.0% Vacancy -3,000, % * 2008* Net Absorption Deliveries Vacancy Projected 10 Year Average Net Absorption: 1,254,295 SF

18 What Drives the NoVa Industrial Market? GSA Demand Residential Growth Rising Interest Rates High Land Prices Service Sector Market not manufacturing, not bulk distribution More Leasing, Less Condo Sales Cheaper Land GSA Security Requirements Airport Development West Winchester, Manassas, Loudoun

19 7. Buy Low, Sell High? Or Buy High, Sell Higher?

20 NoVa Total Office Building Sales Volume $6.00 $ (Billions) $4.50 $3.00 $1.50 $0.00 rce: Real Capital Analytics rolling 12-mo. total quarterly vol.

21 OVA Annual Average Sales Price per Square Foot $350 $300 $273 $297 $/SF $250 $200 $209 $211 $150 $ rce: Real Capital Analytics

22 . Buy Low, Sell High? Or Buy High, Sell Higher? ashington DC Construction Cost Impact on a $1,000,000 Project $1,500,000 $1,400, : $1.35 Million $1,300,000 $1,200,000 $1,100, : $1 Million $1,000, rce: Reed Construction Data

23 12% Suburban Office 10-Year Treasury avg cap rate 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% J AJOJ AJOJ AJOJ AJOJ AJOJAJO '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 rce: Real Capital Analytics

24 6. Westward Ho!

25 Route 28 South Reston/Herndon Tysons Corner Alexandria Arlington County 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1992 Office Inventory Loudoun County % of Total Inventory

26 Reston/Herndon Tysons Corner Alexandria Arlington County Route 28 South 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2006 Office Inventory Loudoun County % of Total Inventory

27 istorical Asking Rates - % of DC Asking Rate 100% 90% % of DC Asking Rate 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Year Washington DC Arlington County Tysons Corner Reston/Herndon

28 . Consolidation - Globalization is Here

29 ccounting: The Big Eight Become the Big Four Arthur Young Ernst and Whinney Deloitte Haskins and Sells Touche Ross Price Waterhouse Coopers and Lybrand

30 anking Citicorp Travelers Group JP Morgan & Co. Chase Manhattan Corp. Bank of America FleetBoston Financial Wachovia First Union

31 wners/investors Seller Buyer Price CarrAmerica Blackstone $5.6 Billion Blackstone (CarrAmerica DC Portfolio) Mark Winkler Co. Trizec Properties Tishman Speyer Duke Realty Corp. Brookfield/Blackstone $2.8 Billion $855 Million $8.9 Billion Prentiss Properties Brandywine $3.3 Billion Equity Office Properties Blackstone (EOP DC/Seattle Portfolio) Blackstone Beacon Capital $39 Billion (Pending) $6.5 Billion (Pending)

32 ommercial Real Estate Service Providers Jones Lang Wootton LaSalle Partners Spaulding & Slye Insignia Trammell Crow CBRE Cassidy & Pinkard Colliers International Cushman & Wakefield Grubb & Ellis Staubach Studley Transwestern???

33 4. Traffic Really? In Virginia?

34 80 70 Annual Hours of Delay per Traveler DC Metro, 3 rd highest in nation fo annual hours (69) o delay per traveler Hours Delay Per Year Washington, DC-VA-MD Charlotte, NC Virginia Beach, VA Baltimore, MD Raleigh-Durham, NC Richmond, VA rce: Texas Transportation Institute

35 Lane Miles and Virginia Economic Activity Lane Miles per $ Million Real Gross State Product rce: Texas Transportation Institute

36 Lane Miles Per Thousand Virginians 13 Lane Miles Per 1,000 Population rce: Texas Transportation Institute

37 Mixing Bowl Wilson Bridge Route 28 Interchanges Metro to Dulles Transportation Funding

38 3. Spec Development in the West

39 oute 28 South: There are currently 9 office buildings under construction in the Route 28 South Submarket, totaling over 1.5 million square feet. As of February 1 st, these projects were 16% preleased. 1,750, % 1,400, % Square Feet 1,050, , , % 10.0% Vacancy Rate 0 5.0% -350,000 Projected * 2008* Net Absorption Deliveries Vacancy 10 Year Average Net Absorption: 609,140 SF 0.0%

40 eston/herndon: There are currently 14 office buildings under construction in the Dulles Toll Road Corridor, totaling over 2.7 million square feet. As of February 1 st, these projects were 9% preleased. Square Feet 2,500,000 2,250,000 2,000,000 1,750,000 1,500,000 1,250,000 1,000, , , , , , ,000-1,000,000 rojected * 2008* Net Absorption Deliveries Vacancy 10 Year Average Net Absorption: 942,690 SF 28.0% 24.0% 20.0% 16.0% 12.0% 8.0% 4.0% 0.0%

41 2. Who Blinks?

42 OVA Net Absorption, Vacancy and Deliveries 25 Million SF Delivered 22.1% of 1998 Inventory Square Feet 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000, ,000,000-2,000,000-3,000, Million SF Delivering 9.91% of 2005 Inventory * 2008* 16.0% 12.0% 8.0% 4.0% 0.0% Vacancy Projected Net Absorption Deliveries Vacancy 10 Year Average Net Absorption: 3,939,743 SF

43 Leases Over 50,000 SF in NoVa: Non-Government # of Leases Year

44 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Corporate Profits 1993-IV 1994-II 1994-IV 1995-II 1995-IV 1996-II 1996-IV 1997-II 1997-IV 1998-II 1998-IV 1999-II 1999-IV 2000-II 2000-IV 2001-II 2001-IV 2002-II 2002-IV 2003-II 2003-IV 2004-II 2004-IV 2005-II 2005-IV 2006-II

45 1. Live, Work, Play

46 4 th Quarter 2006 Asking Rat $45.00 $40.00 $35.00 $30.00 $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00 Tysons Corner Reston Old Town Alexandria

47 4 th Quarter 2006 Vacancy 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Tysons Corner Reston Old Town Alexandria

48 Traffic Unemployment Cost of Housing Commuting/Fuel Costs Growth of Amenity-Rich Mixed Use Projects

49 10. Government Spending Continues to Slow 9. Buildings Are Changing 8. Industrial Space Goes Where the Land Is 7. Buy Low, Sell High? Or Buy High, Sell Higher? 6. Westward Ho! 5. Consolidation Globalization is Here 4. Traffic Really? In Virginia? 3. Spec Development in the West 2. Who Blinks? 1. Live, Work, Play

50 Market continues to be healthy Job growth continues Balance of tenant demand is shifting from government to corporate Modest vacancy increases Employee retention is key unemployment, traff cost of housing More consolidation is coming There s no place better to be