SFSA Business Outlook Raymond Monroe
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1 SFSA Business Outlook 2010 Raymond Monroe
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4 Agriculture Workers
5 Population
6 Industrial Workers
7 Service Workers
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11 U.S. Manufacturing 2008 manufacturing was $1.4 trillion 9 th largest economy/ size of Canada 70% R&D $147 billion 90% of patents $1.00 produces $1.37 of activity 3.4%/year productivity for 20 yrs compared to 2.2%/yr for others 22% higher wages than services manufacturing framework final_embargoed.pdf
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18 Steel Casting Production in the U.S. million tons Million Tons U.S Year
19 Steel Foundries in North America
20 Production and Capacity production capacity 2000 thousand tons
21 United States Steel Production 160,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 40,000,000 20,000, Tons 2004 R^2= 0.72 Slope = 0.02
22 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan Carbon & Low Alloy Casting Market Trends Shipments steel shipments Percent Change %
23 Cast Shipments R^2 =0.51 Slope= '55 '75 '
24 Interest Rates %change Prime Rate R^2=0.33 Slope = 0.37 %change Moody s aaa R^2=0.002
25 Price Index
26 Ratio of nondurable good to GDP implicit price deflator
27 Price of Oil
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29 Nondefense Capital Goods New orders Air %change R^2=0.32 Slope = 0.37
30 Profits v production steel foundries with assets $2 10MM Gross Profit Operating Profit Profit before Taxes
31 Return on Assets steel foundries with assets $2 10MM
32 Profits v. ROA steel foundries with assets $2 10MM Gross Profits Operating Profits Profit before taxes
33 Return on Net Worth steel foundries with assets $2 10MM
34 Current Ratio Steel Foundries $2-10 Million Assets Total Current Assets / Total Current Liabilities Target = Current Ratio Current-Median Upper Current-Median Current-Median Lower Year
35 Quick Ratio Steel Foundries $2-10 Million Assets Cash & Equivalents & Trade Receivable (Net) / Total Current Liabilities Target = Quick Ratio 1.5 Quick-Median Upper Quick Median 1.0 Quick Median Lower Year
36 Fixed/Worth Steel Foundries $2-10 Million Assets Net Fixed Assets / Tangible Net Worth Target = Fixed/Worth Fixed / Worth-Median Upper Fixed / Worth-Median 1.0 Fixed / Worth-Median Lower Year
37 Fixed Assets as a function of Net Worth steel foundries with assets $2 10MM
38 The laws of thermodynamics in very basic lay person language are thus: 1. You cannot win. 2. You cannot break even. 3. You must play the game and lose badly every time.
39 Thanks! Questions? Raymond Monroe
40 Return on Net Worth steel foundries with sales $10 25MM median upper median median lower
41 Return on Assets steel foundries with sales $10 25MM upper median median lower median
42 Profits and ROA steel foundries with sales $10 25MM gross profit operating profit profit before taxes
43 Profits v production steel foundries with sales $10 25MM gross profit operating profit profit before taxes
44 Other factors and ROA steel foundries with sales $10 25MM ebit/interest return on net worth sales/net fixed assets
45 25.0 EBIT/Interest steel foundries with assets $2 10MM
46 Correlation of production and finances steel foundries with assets $2 10MM net worth Operating Profit
47 Correlation of production and finances steel foundries with sales $10 25 MM total current assets operating profit
48 Trade Receivables Turnover Steel Foundries $2-10 Million Assets Net Sales / Trade Receivables (Net) Target = At or Slightly Above Industry Average Trade Receivables Turnover Trade Receivables Turnover - Median Upper Trade Receivables Turnover - Median Trade Receivables Turnover - Median Lower Year
49 Days' Receivable Steel Foundries $2-10 Million Assets 365 / Trade Receivables Turnover Target = At or Lower Than Industry Average Days' Receivable Days Receivable - Median Upper Days Receivable - Median Days Receivable - Median Lower Year
50 27.0 Inventory Turnover Steel Foundries $2-10 Million Assets Cost of Sales / Inventory Target = At or Slightly Above Industry Average 22.0 Inventory Turnover Inventory Turnover -Median Upper Inventory Turnover -Median Inventory Turnover -Median Lower Year
51 Days' Inventory Steel Foundries $2-10 Million Assets 365 / Inventory Turnover Target = At or Slightly Below Industry Average Days' Inventory Days' Inventory - Median Upper Days' Inventory - Median Days' Inventory - Median Lower Year
52 Trade Payables Turnover Steel Foundries $2-10 Million Assets Cost of Sales / Trade Payables Target = Industry Average Trade Payables Turnover Trade Payables Turnover-Median Upper Trade Payables Turnover-Median Trade Payables Turnover-Median Lower Year
53 Days' Payable Steel Foundries $2-10 Million Assets 365 / Trade Payables Turnover Target = Industry Average Days Payable Days' Payable-Median Upper Days' Payable-Median 30.0 Days' Payable-Median Lower Year
54 Working Capital Turnover Steel Foundries $2-10 Million Assets Net Sales / Net Working Capital Target = At or Above Industry Average Working Capital Turnover Working Capital Turnover -Median Upper Working Capital Turnover -Median Working Capital Turnover -Median Lower Year
55 Return on Net Worth Steel Foundries $2-10 Million Assets Profit Before Taxes / Tangible Net Worth Target = Industry Average Return on Net Worth 40.0 Return on Net Worth-Median Upper Return on Net Worth-Median Return on Net Worth-Median Lower Year
56 Return on Assets Steel Foundries $2-10 Million Assets Profit Before Taxes / Total Assets Target = Industry Average Return on Assets Return on Assets- Median Upper Return on Assets- Median Return on Assets- Median Lower Year
57 Asset Turnover Steel Foundries $2-10 Million Assets Sales / Total Assets Target = Industry Average Asset Turnover Sales/Total Assets-Median Upper Sales/Total Assets-Median 1.5 Sales/Total Assets-Median Lower Year
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