Appendix C. Travel Demand Forecasting Technical Memorandum

Transcription

1 Appendix C Travel Demand Frecasting Technical Memrandum

2 MEMORANDUM Date: T: Frm: Subject: Bb Watts, Twn f Castle Rck Karl Buchhlz, Muller Engineering Chris Sheffer, Nick VanderKwaak, Fehr & Peers Travel Demand Mdel fr the Twn f Castle Rck Develpment DN BACKGROUND This mem is intended t dcument the prcess that Fehr and Peers used t develp the travel demand mdel fr the 2010 Castle Rck Transprtatin Plan update. This mem als includes traffic frecasts alng with future travel patterns fr the Castle Rck area. In additin, varius radway prjects were tested with the mdel t determine the benefits t traffic and are summarized in this mem. Castle Rck is in the Denver Reginal Cuncil f Gvernments (DRCOG) and included in the reginal mdel, Duglas Cunty als has a travel demand mdel that was develped by LSA Assciates. The Duglas Cunty mdel is based ff f the DRCOG mdel fr the entire Denver regin and prvides mre lcally defined grwth within the Cunty that wuld influence travel arund and in Castle Rck. LSA prvided Fehr & Peers with the Duglas Cunty mdel fr years 2010, 2020, and The Duglas Cunty mdel was develped with a base year f 2005 and the subsequent years include frecasted land use and netwrk changes. Fehr & Peers used the 2010 Duglas Cunty mdel as a starting pint t develp a base year mdel fr the Castle Rck mdel. In rder t prduce accurate frecasts, a travel demand mdel shuld prduce traffic vlumes in the base year that are cnsistent with current traffic cunts, within specified ranges f accuracy. Fehr & Peers used the existing traffic cunts and updated land use data frm 2010 t validate the 2010 mdel. Sme adjustments and mdificatins were made t the mdel t prvide a better crrelatin f mdel vlumes t traffic cunts. The mdificatins made t the 2010 mdel were als carried frward t the 2020 and 2030 mdels. The fllwing dcuments the mdificatins made t bth the land use and the netwrk th Street, #2301 Denver, CO (303) Fax (303)

3 Page 2 f 24 LAND USE MODIFICATIONS The specific land use data in the 2010 mdel that was updated included tw main data in the Castle Rck Transprtatin Analysis Znes (TAZ); husehld and emplyment. The TAZ structure frm the Duglas Cunty mdel was maintained fr ease f reference Develpment f 2010 Husehld Data Staff frm the Twn f Castle Rck prvided the number f husehlds by subdivisin. GIS and aerial phtgraphy were used t separate the subdivisin husehld ttals int husehld ttals fr TAZs. Fr TAZs that were split between Castle Rck and unincrprated Duglas Cunty, the number f husehlds beynd the twn bundary were cunted and included in the ttal fr the TAZ. In additin, the mdel uses mre detailed data than just ttal number f husehlds. The fllwing updates were made and input int the 2010 mdel. 1. The mdel uses husehlds brken dwn by incme level. The rati f lw t medium t high husehlds in the riginal Duglas Cunty mdel was used fr each f the TAZs. Therefre, just the number f husehlds was adjusted and the percent split between the types remained the same. The twn was nt able t prvide any additinal insight int the incme level split t justify making changes beynd what was in the Duglas Cunty mdel. 2. The mdel uses ttal ppulatin in additin t husehlds. The twn prvided an average husehld size fr bth single-family and multi-family husing units. These average husehld sizes were used t determine the ppulatin in each TAZ based n the number f single-family and multi-family units. Develpment f Future Husehld Frecasts Staff frm the Twn f Castle Rck als prvided husehld frecasts fr 2020 and 2030 by TAZ. Therefre, future husehld frecasts are based n the refined 2010 husehld ttals and updated t include the grwth prvided by the twn staff. The percent split between incme levels and single-family/multi-family were assumed t remain cnsistent within the TAZs.

4 Page 3 f 24 Husehld Grwth ( )

5 Page 4 f 24 Develpment f 2010 Emplyment Data The US Census Bureau LED n the Map applicatin was used t develp refined 2010 emplyment numbers. This applicatin prvides GIS pint data f all emplyees which were summarized by TAZ. Belw is a screen snapsht frm the applicatin shwing 2008 emplyment data fr the twn f Castle Rck. Given the current ecnmic cnditins, n majr emplyment changes were assumed between 2008 and Adjustments were made t emplyment numbers in tw dwntwn TAZ s due t aggregatin f cunty wide jbs int a single TAZ. One f the adjustments was due t the Duglas Cunty schl district jbs all being reprted in the schl district s dwntwn ffice, and the ther adjustment was due t ther cunty jbs being reprted in ne dwntwn TAZ. The adjusted rati f jbs per TAZ was cnsistent with the 2005 Duglas Cunty mdel emplyment data. The mdel uses mre refined data than just ttal number f emplyees. Emplyees are brken dwn by industrial, retail, and ffice. The splits in the Duglas Cunty mdel were used as a starting pint and verified with aerial data. In additin, the ttal emplyment split fr Castle Rck was available s the ttals were als checked. Develpment f Future Emplyment Frecasts Staff frm the Twn f Castle Rck prvided cmmercial grwth numbers fr 2020 and 2030 by TAZ. The amunt f develpment was cnverted t number f emplyees based n the standard assumptins: 1. Office: 4 emplyees per 1,000 square feet 2. Retail: 2 emplyees per 1,000 square feet 3. Industrial: 1.5 emplyees per 1,000 square feet Future emplyee frecasts are based n the 2008 numbers and updated t include the number f emplyees calculated frm the amunt f new develpment prvided by the twn staff.

6 Page 5 f 24 Emplyment Grwth by TAZ ( )

7 Page 6 f 24 Other Land Use Mdificatins The mdel was run with the land use updates fr the Twn f Castle Rck and sme f the vlumes were unreasnably high when cmpared t cunts. Thus, land uses in surrunding Cunty TAZs were mdified based n 2010 cnditins shwn in aerial phtgraphy. In general, 2010 r future land uses were nt mdified in the mre remte prtins f Duglas Cunty nt directly adjacent t the Twn f Castle Rck. NETWORK MODIFICATIONS A thrugh investigatin f the 2010 Duglas Cunty mdel radways within the Twn f Castle Rck was cmpleted. This indicated that several changes needed t be made s that the mdel reflected the existing cnditins. The fllwing are the majr changes made t the riginal mdel t reflect 2010 cnditins thrughut the Twn f Castle Rck. Radways Mdified Plum Creek Parkway between Wlfensberger Rd and I-25 was reduced frm 4 lanes t 2 lanes t represent existing cnditins. Frnt Street nrth f the Perry Street split was increased frm 2 lanes t 4 lanes t represent existing cnditins. Sctt Bulevard was increased frm 2 lanes t 4 lanes t represent existing cnditins. Wdlands Bulevard was increased frm 2 lanes t 4 lanes t represent existing cnditins. The Perry Street cnnectin was added. Input speed changes t several radways t calibrate the mdel t existing cunts and reflect prevailing traffic speeds. Future Radway Netwrks The changes made within the Twn f Castle Rck were carried ver int future mdel radway netwrks. The radway netwrk within the Twn f Castle Rck was merged with the 2020 and 2030 netwrks frm the Duglas Cunty. S that prjects planned by Duglas Cunty and DRCOG are included in the future mdel runs fr areas utside f the Twn. SCENARIOS MODELING The fllwing fur scenaris were mdeled t reflect future cnditins with specific prjects being built as well as future baseline cnditins withut prjects being built. The 2030 Base scenari includes all prjects included in the 2020 Base + Selected Prjects scenari. Each prject scenari builds sequentially n the prir scenari, and each scenari descriptin lists the additinal prjects which were included.

8 Page 7 f Base This scenari includes existing radways with the fllwing additin: Nrth Meadws Interchange (4 lane radway cnnecting Meadws Blvd t US 85 and I-25) With increases in land use between 2010 and 2020, bth daily and peak hur traffic increased n many rads within Castle Rck. This is als reflected in decreased peak hur v/c ratis. The cnstructin f the Nrth Meadws Interchange prvided significant relief t Meadws Parkway.

9 Page 8 f Base Average Daily Traffic

10 Page 9 f Base PM Peak Traffic Cngestin

11 Page 10 f Base + Selected Prjects This scenari includes the abve 2020 Base with the fllwing prjects: Meadws Blvd widening (+2 lanes between Cachline and Meadws Pkwy) Wdlands Blvd missing link (between Sctt Rad and Funders Pkwy) Liggett Rad extensin (cnnects t Wlfensberger Rd) Prairie Hawk Drive extensin/re-alignment (between Wlfensberger and Plum Creek Pkwy) With the additin f fur prjects t the 2020 base mdel, there was cngestin relief t existing rads. Funders Parkway shwed a reductin in traffic due t the Wdlands Blvd link, Cachline Rd and Plum Creek Pkwy als had a reductin in traffic due t the Prairie Hawk Drive extensin/re-alignment, and ther rads such as Meadws Blvd and Liggett Rad had reductins in peak hur vlume t capacity ratis.

12 Page 11 f Base + Selected Prjects Average Daily Traffic

13 Page 12 f Base + Selected Prjects PM Peak Traffic Cngestin

14 Page 13 f BaseThe 2030 Base scenari includes the 2020 plus prjects and the fllwing imprvement: Crystal Valley Ranch Interchange (I-25 interchange at Crystal Valley Pkwy) Increases in land use between 2020 and 2030 increased the level f traffic n mst rads and als increased peak hur vlume t capacity ratis n many rads. Crystal Valley Pkwy shwed increased traffic due t thse land use changes as well as the new interchange at I-25 and Crystal Valley Pkwy. A shift in traffic between I-25 and Crw Ft Valley Rad als resulted due t rad prjects utside f Castle Rck impacting traffic patterns frm the nrth. Increased capacity n Santa Fe cming in frm the nrth als shifted traffic frm I Base Average Daily Traffic

15 Page 14 f Base PM Peak Traffic Cngestin

16 Page 15 f Base + Selected Prjects This scenari includes the 2030 Base with the fllwing prjects: Crwft Valley Rad widening (+2 lanes nrth f Funders Pkwy which als includes Duglas Cunty imprvements up t Strh Rad) Castle Oaks Drive Prairie Hawk Drive widening (+2 lanes between Wlfensberger Rd and Meadws Pkwy) New rad west f UPRR (between Wlfensberger Rd and Meadws Pkwy) Liggett Rad widening (+2 lanes between I-25 and Santa Fe Dr) Wlfensberger Rad widening (+2 lanes between Cachline and Prairie Hawk) 5 th Street widening (+2 lanes between Wdlands Blvd and Funders Pkwy) Ridge Rad widening (+2 lanes between Plum Creek and Fifth) Cachline Rad widening (+2 lanes between Meadws Blvd and Wlfensberger Rd) Valley Drive missing link Relcatin f I-25 west Frntage Rad with 4 lane capacity Perry Street extensin (suthern end) Miller Blvd widening (+2 lanes) The mdel results with these prjects shwed decreased traffic and decreased peak hur vlume t capacity ratis n many Castle Rck radways. With widening f Crwft Valley Rad, traffic shifted away frm SH 86 cming in frm the east, which resulted in a reductin f traffic n Fifth Street int dwntwn. Other significant changes include decreased traffic n radways due t increased cnnectins and reduced peak hur vlume t capacity ratis n radways where alternate rutes exist because f the new prjects.

17 Page 16 f Base + Selected Prjects Average Daily Traffic

18 Page 17 f Base + Selected Prjects PM Peak Traffic Cngestin

19 Page 18 f 24 Additinal Scenari Mdeling While these fur scenaris prvide a base cmparisn f travel demand, the fllwing scenaris were als run with 2020 and 2030 base mdels t determine the effect single prjects may have n travel patterns. A shrt descriptin f the impact f each additinal scenari is given belw Individual Prject Scenaris (In additin t 2020 Base Mdel) Key prjected year 2020 traffic patterns and shifts are summarized with the fllwing prjects. Wdlands Blvd extensin between Sctt Rad and Black Feather Trail This prject wuld be expected t: -Draw an ADT f 6500 alng new Wdlands Blvd -Decrease 2400 ADT alng Sctt Rad -Decrease 1000 ADT n Funders Pkwy Meadws Blvd Expansin t 4 lanes between Cachline Rad and Meadws Pkwy This prject wuld be expected t: -Cause minimal change in ADT n adjacent rads, -Wuld prvide increased capacity and better flw t I-25

20 Page 19 f 24 Liggett Rad extensin suth t Wlfensberger Rad This prject wuld be expected t: -Drawn an ADT f 3600 t 6800 alng Liggett Rad -Increase ADT by apprximately 2700 ADT alng Wlfensberger Rad -Decrease ADT n Santa Fe Blvd by apprximately 500 ADT Prairie Hawk Drive extensin This prject wuld be expected t: -Draw an ADT f up t 4000 alng Prairie Hawk Dr -Cause traffic t shift frm Plum Creek Pkwy t Prairie Hawk Dr

21 Page 20 f Individual Prject Scenaris (In additin t 2030 Base Mdel) Key prjected year 2030 traffic patterns and shifts are summarized with the fllwing prjects. 5 th Street Widening t 4 lanes between Gilbert St and Funders Pkwy This prject wuld be expected t: -Imprve flw and cnnectivity t dwntwn area -Prvide sme mdest relief t Funders Pkwy -Increase traffic n Wdlands by apprximately 500 ADT -Increase traffic n 5 th St by nearly 1000 ADT which therwise wuld be diverted t ther rutes. Prairie Hawk widened t 4 lanes between Meadws Pkwy and Wfensberger Rd This prject wuld be expected t: -Draw 1700 ADT traffic frm Cachline n a mre direct rute t Wlfensberger -Help reduce traffic n Wlfensberger by apprximately 1700 ADT west f Prairie Hawk. -Helps reduce traffic at I-25 Meadws interchange by apprximately 1000 ADT

22 Page 21 f 24 Ridge Rad Widening t 4 lanes between State Highway 86 and Plum Creek Pkwy This prject wuld be expected t: -Result in little change in ADT (less than 500 ADT) -Set stage fr cmpleting 4 lane Ring Rad netwrk -Result in less than 500 ADT mre traffic n Plum Creek Pkwy New rad between Liggett Rd and Funders Pkwy west f UPRR tracks This prject wuld be expected t: -Prvide primarily lcal access -Draw between 2000 and 3000 ADT -Prvide relief r ptin t Prairie Hawk

23 Page 22 f 24 Relcatin f I-25 west Frntage Rad with 4 lane capacity This prject wuld be expected t: -Draw apprximately 4700 ADT Prvide lcal access and sme east side relief t rutes such as Plum Creek Blvd (700 ADT) -Increased traffic at Plum Creek Interchange by apprximately 1800 ADT -Grwth nrth f Crystal Valley Pkwy results in higher vlume Wlfensberger widening between Cachline and Prairie Hawk Dr This prject wuld be expected t: -Prvide better flw but nt draw traffic frm adjacent rutes - Imprve V/C rati frm.7 t.3 - Result in little r n change in ADT alng Wlfensberger Rd

24 Page 23 f 24 NORTH MEADOWS EXTENSION EA COMPARISON The results f the 2030 preliminary mdel runs were cmpared t the vlumes shwn in the Nrth Meadws Extensin t US 85 and I-25 Envirnmental Assessment (EA) by Felsburg Hlt and Ullevig. The fllwing table summarizes the differences between the mdeling results presented in the EA and the updated Duglas Cunty mdel prepared fr this prject Average Daily Traffic (ADT) just West f I-25 Meadws % Increase frm N Meadws Dr Ttal Pkwy Existing Existing 36,200 n/a 36,200 n/a Nrth Meadws Extensin t US 85 EA 45,600 29,100 74, % Castle Rck Mdel 29,400 32,200 61,600 70% While there are differences in the split and ttal traffic between the tw cnnectins t I-25, the difference in traffic prjectins between the mdels culd be a result f different land use assumptins, radway netwrk assumptins, r a cmbinatin.

25 Page 24 f 24 TRAFFIC DISTRIBUTION PATTERNS Radway imprvements in Duglas Cunty utside f the immediate Castle Rck area had nticeable influence n mdeled traffic patterns within Castle Rck. The fllwing assumptins f radway netwrk grwth frm the Duglas Cunty mdel were carried frward t the Castle Rck mdel and had an impact n traffic assignment. In 2030, Santa Fe Drive was mdeled as a 6 lane reginal arterial fr the area utside f Castle Rck. Vlume n this rad went up significantly which in turn reduced vlume n I-25. With significant imprvements t Crwft Valley Rad in the 2030 Duglas Cunty mdel and heavy grwth frecasted in nrtheast Duglas Cunty, vlume alng this rute increased significantly. The attractiveness f this rute redirected traffic ff f I-25. Other imprvements in nrtheast Duglas Cunty such as the widening f Parker Rad als cntributed t the mdels attractiveness f Crwft Valley Rad. Origin Destinatin Analysis In rder t determine where trips t and frm Castle Rck are cming frm, an analysis was perfrmed by breaking the mdel area int aggregate znes. TAZ s that were either whlly r partially in the Castle Rck bundary were included in ne aggregate zne, TAZ s in Duglas Cunty east f I-25 were put int an aggregate zne, TAZ s in Duglas Cunty west f I-25 were put in an aggregate zne, and all ther TAZ s in the DRCOG mdel were placed int a remaining aggregate zne. Trips frm utside f the mdel area which includes the area just suth f Duglas Cunty were nt included in this calculatin. The increase f internal traffic between 2010 and 2020 is likely attributable t a higher frecast f emplyment grwth than husing grwth, thus resulting in mre trips staying in Castle Rck. Percentage f Origins and Destinatins f trips t/frm Castle Rck Mdel Year Internal Western Duglas Cunty Eastern Duglas Cunty Metr Area % 7% 7% 21% % 7% 7% 15% % 7% 7% 15%