The Importance of Infrastructure and Real Estate for the Future of Brussels, Europe s Capital.
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1 The Importance of Infrastructure and Real Estate for the Future of Brussels, Europe s Capital. ERES INDUSTRY SEMINAR, Brussels Jean-Paul Loozen, March 11, 2016 Academic Director Executive Programme in Real Estate Solvay Brussels School Brussels University EMEA Real Estate Advisory Services leader - Deloitte 1
2 Table of Contents 2. The European Institutions, key to the market 3. Is infrastructure adequate for Europe s capital? 4. Conclusions 2015 Deloitte Belgium 2
3 Real GDP growth in European countries ( ) Regional differences within Europe remain large 5,00% 4,00% 3,00% 2,00% 1,00% 0,00% -1,00% GDP growth in Belgium Average Average Consumer confidence The enhancement of the economic conditions had positive impacts on the consumer and business confidence indices which have increased since April 2013 As a result, consumer confidence has reached its highest level since July The prospects for households financial situations and savings capacities are more favorable The economic climate has also presented positive evolutions, even if some slight deterioration is observed in December, especially in the construction sector Consumer and business confidence index Belgium performs better than the Eurozone average Source: Oxford Economics, December 2013, DTZ Source: National Bank of Belgium, December 2013, DTZ 2014 Deloitte Belgium 3
4 Unemployment rate in European countries ( ) Despite an enhancement of the economic conditions, unemployment has raised in the Eurozone to reach 12% at the end of 2013, up from 11.4% in Unemployment has also increased in Belgium to reach 8.7% coming from 7.6% a year ago. 30,00% 25,00% 20,00% 15,00% 10,00% 5,00% 0,00% Unemployment rate in Belgium In Belgium, Regional disparities in terms of unemployment have widened in 2013 with an important increase of unemployment rate in Brussels to 19.7% in Unemployment will remain a major issue in 2014 as it should rise to 19.8% in Brussels while it should slightly decrease in Wallonia and in Flanders. Source: EIU Average Average Source: Oxford Economics, December 2013, DTZ 2014 Deloitte Belgium 4
5 The office stock in 2015 By Sub-market (in 000 m²) Center & South North Quarter Leopold/E.U. quarter Louise 700 Decentralised Periphery (outside Region boundaries) Total Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate/Deloitte R.E Deloitte Belgium 5
6 Deloitte R.E. ERES Industry Seminar March 11, 2016 Brussels Region: Evolution of the Total Office Stock m² m² m² m² m² m² m² m² Disponible Occupé Sources: 2014 Deloitte Ph. Winssinger Belgium & Associés, Catella Codemer, Deloitte Real Estate, Observatoire des bureaux, DTZ 6
7 Rental Cash Flow / m² / Year Nominal rent vs. Real rent (Prime rent Brussels) (a) 350,00 300,00 250,00 200,00 150,00 100,00 50,00 0,00-50,00-100, Source : DTZ Research, Expertise; Deloitte Real Estate (a) Exceptional values included 2014 Deloitte Belgium 7
8 Deloitte R.E. ERES Industry Seminar March 11, 2016 In 2015, the initial gross yield reached 5,3 %. Brussels: Initial Gross Yield Class-A Office Space (excluding L.T. leases) 8,00% 7,50% 7,00% 6,50% 6,00% 5,50% 5,00% Sources: Ph. Winssinger & Associés; Catella-Codemer; Deloitte Real Estate 2014 Deloitte Belgium 8
9 Lowest Capitalization Rates Prime Yields - January 2016 Belgium Retail : - Shopping centers 4,3 % - High Street 4,0 % Office : - Regular leases 5,3 % - L.T. leases <5,0 % Logistics 6,5 % Student housing 5 to 6 % Residential (by institutional investor) 5,0 % 2014 Deloitte Belgium 9
10 Brussels: investment value / m² Class-A Office Space (a) (a) with regular leases; without exceptional rent levels Sources: Ph. Winssinger & Associés; Catella-Codemer; Deloitte Real Estate 2014 Deloitte Belgium 10
11 Deloitte R.E. ERES Industry Seminar March 11, 2016 The Brussels office market spread. Brussels Real Estate premiums vs. Risk-free rate. 16,00% 14,00% 12,00% 10,00% 8,00% 6,00% 4,00% 2,00% 0,00% -2,00% Spread (Rf) rate - Prime yield Prime Yield OLO 10 YRS Risk free (and inflation rate) Inflation Source: Deloitte Real Estate Research 2014 Deloitte Belgium 11
12 The Brussels office market spread. London vs. Brussels Spread comparison. 10,00% 8,00% 6,00% 4,00% 2,00% 0,00% -2,00% -4,00% London Brussels Sources: Deloitte Real Estate Research, Drivers Jonas Deloitte UK 2014 Deloitte Belgium 12
13 Conclusions: an island of stability low rent level by west-european standards limited range of variation of the capital values compensated by a higher spread or yield premium Why? 2014 Deloitte Belgium 13
14 2. The European Institutions, key to the Market European Institutions in Brussels: European Commission European Parliament The Council of the European Union European Economic and Social Committee Committee of the Regions 2014 Deloitte Belgium 14
15 2. The European Institutions, key to the Market Location of European Institutions in the heart of Brussels CBD : Source: European Commission 2014 Deloitte Belgium 15
16 2. The European Institutions, key to the Market European Commission : m² Spread over 54 buildings European Parliament : m² 2014 Deloitte Belgium 16
17 2. The European Institutions, key to the Market The Council of the European Union : m² European Economic and Social Committee - Committee of the Regions : m² The European Institutions use more than m² in the Brussels CBD Deloitte Belgium 17
18 2. The European Institutions, key to the Market Occupier s market in Brussels Financial Services Industry AG BNP Paribas Fortis Belfius KBC ING Axa Belgium Euroclear Allianz European institutions ( m²) European Commission Quartier Leopold Evere Beaulieu European Parliament and its administration EU Council of Ministers Economic & Social Committee Committee of the Regions Federal Institutions ( m²) Local & Regional institutions Flemish administration French speaking Community administration NATO Public Sector Public owned enterprises Bpost Proximus Belgian Railways Etc Deloitte Belgium 18
19 2. The European Institutions, key to the Market Stability through ownership concentration Top 10 portfolio owners in Belgium December 2015 (mio EUR): 1. AXA REIM Belgium (Assur.) AG Real Estate (Assur.) Cofinimmo (REIT) Befimmo (REIT) Redevco Belgium (Private fund) Sub-total Top % 6. Retail Estates (REIT) AEW Europe (Asset Mgr) Aedifica (REIT) China Invest. Corp. (SWF) WDP (REIT) 822 Sub-total Top % 2014 Deloitte Belgium 19 Grand total Top %
20 3. Is Infrastructure adequate for Europe s Capital? Brussels international mobility infrastructure : Direct connection to London with Eurostar (1 h 50 min.) High-speed train connections to major European cities (Paris, Köln, Amsterdam) (< 1,5 hrs.) Brussels Airport located at 15 min. from the city center Density of highways 2014 Deloitte Belgium 20
21 4. Conclusions 2014 Deloitte Belgium 21
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