Malthus revisited? Science and resource limits

Transcription

1 Malthus revisited? Science and resource limits Andrew Bloodworth Head of Science for Minerals and Waste, British Geological Survey Navachab mine, Namibia

2 Rev Thomas Malthus The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race.

3 Billion Global population, , according to different projection variants High fertility Medium fertility Low fertility Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2009): World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision. New York

4 Minerals are all around us Food fertilisers, drinking water, food preparation and packaging Energy vital for all industries, transport, power generation, heating Construction houses, schools, hospitals, shops, offices Transportation roads, railways, airports, cars, buses, trains, ships and aircraft Technology and communications computers, telecommunications, electronic applications Globally we produce annually approximately: 16 million tonnes copper 1.6 billion tonnes iron ore 6 billion tonnes coal

5 Limits to growth The Coal Question and the Probable Exhaustion of our Coal Mines (Jevons, 1865) Presidents Material Policy Commission ( ) The Limits to Growth (The Club of Rome, Meadows et al. 1972) only 550 billion barrels of oil remained and that they would run out by 1990

6 On borrowed time? Neo-Malthusian thinking Metal stocks and sustainability (Gordon et al. 2006) Countdown are the Earth s mineral resources running out? Mining Journal (2008) Perspectives on the Environmental Limits concept (Turner et al. 2007) Assessing the long-run availability of copper (Tilton and Lagos, 2007) Peak Minerals (Bardi and Pagani, 2007) Peak Minerals in Australia Giurco et al Rare metals getting rarer (Ragnarsdottir, 2008) Nature Earth s natural wealth: an audit (Cohen, 2007) The disappearing nutrient (Gilbert, 2009) Nature

7 Earth s natural wealth: an audit (New Scientist) Number Years left = Reserves Annual global consumption Conclusion - antimony will run out in 15 years, silver in 10 and indium in under five

8 Dynamic reserves As the earth is finite, intuitively appealing to consider mineral resources as static However, fixed stock approach (years remaining = reserves / consumption ) is flawed Reserves represent a very small proportion of crustal resources Reserves are dynamic and depend on scientific knowledge and price of target mineral. Reserves poor indicator of longterm availability as definition depends on current science, technology and economics Reserves Resources Resources (discovered and undiscovered) Undiscovered resources RESERVES - the quantity of a mineral commodity found in subsurface resources, which are both known and profitable to exploit with existing technology, prices and other conditions

9 years years t t years years Mio. t Mio. t Reserves and long-term availability the reality 16 1, Copper 2008: 14.4 Mio. t 1,2 0,8 Nickel 2008: 1.5 Mio. t : 4.2 Mio. t 0,4 1960: 0.34 Mio. t : 39 years 2008: 36 years : 63 years 2008: 46 years Indium 50 Cobalt : 563 t : 63,783 t : 66.4 t : t : 15 years 2007: 19 years : 125 years 2008: 111 years Mine production (for indium, refinery production) Static life time of reserve base* Static life time of reserves Data sources: USGS, BGR database, 2009 *Before 1988, the USGS only classified reserves

10 Impact of science on primary resources: New models, new mines Porphyry revolution: Lowell, J D & Guilbert, J M (1970) Lateral and vertical alteration-mineralization zoning in porphyry ore deposits. Economic Geology 65, pp Epithermal precious and base metals Hedenquist, J W & Henley, RW (1985) Hydrothermal eruptions in the Waiotapu geothermal system, New Zealand - their origin, associated breccias, and relation to precious metal mineralization Economic Geology 80, pp Hedenquist, JW & Lowenstern, JB (1994) The role of magmas in the formation of hydrothermal ore-deposits Nature 370 (6490): Mineral deposit models allow prediction of the location of new targets and are the foundation for exploration and development Escondida, Chile: 60 % of global copper production now comes from porphyry style deposits Bonanza Au, Round Mountain Mine, Nevada

11 New frontiers: Where will primary resources come from in the future? New terranes Cu in Pakistan and Afghanistan Old targets in old terranes Reappraisal of Cu-Co in Zambia/ DRC, Hemerdon tungsten deposit, Devon Arctic Fe ore, base metals, Au and coal Seabed - Cu-Zn-Au-Ag in massive sulphide deposits in SW Pacific Hemerdon, Devon

12 Million Kilograms Tonnes Can we keep pace with demand? Global Production Global Production of Platinum of Iron Group Ore Metals GDP of the 'E7' (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey) will be 25% greater than the G7 by 2050 (PWC forecast). 2, , ,000 2,000 As well as utilising primary resources we must also: 400,000 Fully utilise resources in anthropogenic environment (recycle and re-use) 1, ,000 1,000 Improve resource efficiency (do more with less) 200, ,000 Source: Source: BGS BGS Mineral Mineral Statistics Statistics database database Years

13 It s not easy being green End of life global recycling rates for 62 metals (Source: UNEP) Information on metal stocks in society very sparse Long residence times restrict availability of resource Recycling rates for many metals (including those needed for environmental technologies) are extremely low Fate of total stock of auto catalyst platinum (Source: Umicore) Lost, 800t, 20% Recycled, 570t, 14% Still on the road, 2700t, 66% 2008 Global mined output = 452t (Source: BGS)

14 Environmental limits How much will our growing usage of earth resources accelerate climate change? Can we afford the carbon cost of recovering low grades from primary and secondary materials? Decarbonisation of resource use presents a major scientific, technical and economic challenge South Crofty tin mine, Cornwall 1904

15 Environmental change and limits to growth: Climate impact of resource use Global cement industry produces 5% of all anthropogenic CO 2 Solvent extraction refinery at Skorpion zinc mine uses 20% of Namibia s electricity Electrolitic zinc recovery, Skorpion

16 Energy Intensity (Thousand Btu/$ GDP) Energy efficiency Breaking rocks is hard work significant energy is wasted (heat & noise) in grinding Low Energy Extractive Metallurgy breaking rock in tension, microwave-assisted grinding 2km 2 bio-heap leach pads at Talvivraara nickel mine, Finland low grade ore spends 5 years on the pads to recover 90% of Ni Energy- Intensive Industries Mining Energy Consumption (Trillion Btu) Paper Petroleum Chemicals Textiles/apparel Wood Tobacco/beverages Food processing Furniture Plastics Fabricated Metals Rubber Transportation Leather Printing Machinery and Computers Electrical Industrial energy intensity vs. energy consumption Sources: EIA 2001, 1998 Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey; U.S. DOE 2002, Energy and Environmental Profile of the U.S. Mining Industry

17 Jan-2005 Jul-2005 Jan-2006 Jul-2006 Jan-2007 Jul-2007 Jan-2008 Jul-2008 Jan-2009 Jul-2009 Jan-2010 US$ per tonne Economics drives science Adam Smith When demand exceeds supply, the price goes up. When the supply exceeds demand, the price goes down The Wealth of Nations, published in 1776 Burgeoning demand will increase commodity prices High prices are a powerful driver for scientific innovation and attitudinal change (new primary Zinc price trend resources/ higher recycling rates/ substitution/ 5000 increased resource efficiency) 4500 Does the current price of raw materials reflect their 4000 environmental cost? Great Britain 2000 Sweden 1500 Spain Italy Ireland Germany 0 France Impact of environmental taxation? EU average Zinc cash LME 15 daily official 20 price Source: Metal Bulletin, 2009a Recycled aggregates as % total production (Source: Mineral Products Association)

18 Malthus revisited Malthus understanding of production of the earth did not take future science, innovation and their economic drivers into account babies are born with brains as well as mouths Growth trajectory of human population and living standards mean that science is vital in extending resources (primary, secondary) and doing more with less Limits to growth exist, but not physical exhaustion Malthus envisaged, rather that the carrying capacity of our environment will restrict our ability to utilise resources Scientific endeavour also needed to break link between resource use and humaninduced environmental change