CHAMBER THEME. Tom Schultz Chamber Board of Directors Chair Vice President Tyler Sales
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1 WELCOME
2 EVENT SPONSORS
3 CHAMBER THEME Tom Schultz Chamber Board of Directors Chair Vice President Tyler Sales
4 CHAMBER THEME
5 EVENT PARTNERS
6 SIGNATURE SPONSORS
7 VISIT OUR DISPLAYERS Aquastar Cruises Blue Horizons Wellness / Schneider Risk Management HealthWest Medendorp Real Estate Group Muskegon Area Intermediate School District Muskegon Country Club Muskegon Area First Next I.T. Padnos Shoreline Recycling Ramos + Sons Body Shop Sonus Hearing Care Professionals United Way of the Lakeshore
8 TODAY S PROGRAM Darryl Todd Interim President/CEO Muskegon Area First
9 TODAY S PROGRAM Paul Isely, Ph.D Economist Associate Dean of Undergraduate Programs Seidman College of Business at Grand Valley State University
10 A View of the Economic Conditions in Muskegon 2019 Dr. Paul Isely
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12 My Accuracy in Past Journeys Forecast vs Actual Employment Growth For West Michigan Using Grand Rapids and Muskegon MSA CES Data Percent Change Through November Low Estimate High Estimate Actual
13 Current conditions along the lake are Yellow Flag with worsening conditions forecasted.
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15 What are the indicators that show the wave has crested?
16 CONFIDENCE West Michigan Confidence Index Forecast Government Companies Source: Seidman
17 FULL POTENTIAL Real GDP (billions of 2009 dollars) $19,000 $18,000 $17,000 $16,000 $15,000 $14,000 $13,000 $12,000 GDP vs Potential Source: BEA, CBO, and Isely
18 COMPENSATION CONSTRAINT 2.5 Percent of Productivity Growth Accruing to Labor 2 Source: BLS
19 INPUT CONTRAINT 0.15 Input vs Output Prices Source: BLS
20 MONEY CONSTRAINT TEN Year vs ONE Year Teasury Rates (YEILD CURVE) Source: Treasury
21 Does Muskegon have the talent to ride the wave?
22 WAGES $27.00 $26.00 $25.00 $24.00 $23.00 $22.00 $21.00 $20.00 Average Hourly Wages November 2018 Michigan Grand Rapids Muskegon Source: BLS
23 WAGE GROWTH Smoothed YOY Hourly Wage Growth 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% % -6% Source: BLS & Isely MI GR MKG DET
24 EMPLOYMENT Employment Growth Muskegon 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% % -6% -8% -10% -12% Muskegon 12MM Muskegon 3 MM Source: BLS and Isely
25 EMPLOYMENT GRAND RAPIDS Employment Growth Grand Rapids 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% % -6% -8% -10% Grand Rapids 12MM Grand Rapids 3MM Source: BLS and Isely
26 EMPLOYMENT POTENTIAL Source: ACS
27 What are the important flags to watch?
28 Housing Vs Housing Units 1,500 Housing Units vs Households Muskegon MSA 1, ,000 year Housing Units Since 2010 year Housholds Since 2010
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30 Preparing for the Rough Waters Ahead Prepare for: Tougher borrowing conditions Accelerating compensation Smaller, less qualified worker pools Plan for Taking advantage of a short, shallow recession
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32 EVENT SPONSORS
33 Economic Forecast 2019
34 Sam Hansen 1st Promise Scholar Muskegon High School 2015
35 Dream Bigger! FUNDS already committed Mercy Health Sheryl & Dan Kuznar Family Julie & Pat Donahue Family Swanson Pickle Co. Eklund Holdings, LLC Kathy & Steve Parker Family MasterTag Executive Air Transport
36 Economic Forecast 2019
37 UPCOMING EVENTS STIR Networking Event Family Edition Tuesday, January 29 5:00PM 7:30PM Muskegon Winter Sports Complex Event Sponsor: Event Partners:
38 UPCOMING EVENTS Food & Facts: Business Planning Thursday, February 7 11:00AM 12:30PM Muskegon Area Transit System Event Partners:
39 UPCOMING EVENTS Muskegon STAR! Certification Training Wednesday, February 20 1:00PM 5:00PM West Michigan Works! Event Sponsor: Event Partners:
40 UPCOMING EVENTS Event Partners: Business for Breakfast State of the South County Friday, February 22 7:15AM 9:00AM Folkert Community Hub
41 ANNUAL REPORT Pick up a copy of our 2018 Annual Report on your way out!
42 CHAMBER THEME
2019 ECONOMIC FORECAST AND FINANCIAL MARKET UPDATE
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